J.Mike's Missives

The NFL Draft is just more than two days away and speculation is in high gear.

When I first had the idea to do a series of mock drafts leading up to this epic offseason event I was ignorant to the various opinions held by the Falcons fan base.

You all opened my eyes to more possibilities and I hate I couldn’t get to them all.

I was also a little naive to the amount of research it takes to create a successful mock draft. This was surely easier when the NFL had less than 32 teams and media jabbering and team-by-team smoke screening weren’t part of the draft mystique.

At times I just wanted someone else to do it but I must say the act of research and figuring out scenarios for the first round gave me a better understanding for what may go down Saturday.

It also gives me a new appreciation for the amount of work Falcons personnel men — including Head Coach Mike Smith, General Manager Thomas Dimitroff and their staffs — put in on a daily basis.

Here’s the final mock.

No. 1 — Detroit Lions
QB Matthew Stafford, Georgia (no change)

Apparently, Stafford is telling former teammates he’s going to be a Lion. The Lions say the draft board wasn’t finalized until just a few days ago. We won’t know for sure until contract talks get underway but it seems to me Detroit is going to wait until Saturday to make the official announcement. A lot of analysts think Mark Sanchez is the safe pick at quarterback and Detroit will be better off selecting an offensive tackle at No. 1. It’s hard to argue with that. But it’s also hard to say the Lions don’t need to make a splash in the draft to go along with their new head coach and uniforms.

No. 2 — St. Louis Rams
T Eugene Monroe, Virginia (Previous Pick: Jason Smith)

The top five picks in the NFL Draft are supposed to be easy. Not the case this year. I’ve pushed three players through the No. 2 spot and I’ve decided on the player that’s been here the least. Jason Smith may have more upside. He may even be more athletic. But Monroe is the safe pick among tackles.

No. 3 — Kansas City Chiefs
LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest (no change)

Kansas City must make a choice. Every position of need can be addressed with the No. 3 pick or later in the first round. Trade? I’m thinking it’s a possibility considering the amount of rumored talks involving the Chiefs in recent weeks. Predicting details of trades is an art all it’s own, so I won’t get into it. Assume the Chiefs stay at No. 3. They take the most athletic player available.

No. 4 — Seattle Seahawks
T Jason Smith, Baylor (Previous Pick: B.J. Raji)

Scoring is the key in the NFC West, especially with the Cardinals coming off a division championship and Super Bowl appearance. Raji — or any defensive pick — can help the Seahawks win games but getting the offense on sure footing takes priority here.

No. 5 — Cleveland Browns
DE/LB Brian Orakpo, Texas (no change)

It all starts with a pass rush. Ohio State cornerback/safety Malcom Jenkins meets a need but the desire to get sacks and force opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions drives this pick. Orakpo, like all the hybrid defensive ends, will need to learn a thing or two about playing linebacker in a 3-4 but NFL coaches are spry enough to develop packages to put a good pass rusher to work.

No. 6 — Cincinnati Bengals
DT B.J. Raji, Boston College (Previous Pick: Eugene Monroe)

The Bengals have a lot of picks. Four in the first three rounds. They can address more needs with a pair of third-round selections and Raji is too good a player to pass up at this spot in the draft

No. 7 — Oakland Raiders
WR Michael Crabtree (no change)

The Raiders only have five picks in the draft. That’s what trades will do for you. I was in Oakland when I watched Crabtree and Texas Tech play Texas. I’ll be in Oakland again the next time I watch Crabtree play. It’s time for the Raiders to take a shot at the three-headed monster on offense (Darren McFadden, JaMarcus Russell and Crabtree). I would say the Jaguars would be looking to trade into the spot, but the signing of Torry Holt stops some of the bleeding at that position.

No. 8 — Jacksonville Jaguars
QB Mark Sanchez, USC (no change)

Go ahead and question this pick. David Garrard has put up solid numbers in recent years. But some draft analysts say Sanchez is actually better than Stafford. This situation is too good to pass up if you’re Jacksonville. Consider most successful quarterbacks in the league aren’t asked to start from Day One. Matt Ryan, of course, is the wonderful exception.

No. 9 — Green Bay Packers
DE Aaron Maybin (no change)

Green Bay has four picks in the top 100 and two big holes on a defense that’s going to a pure 3-4. The key to a successful 3-4 defense is along the line, but this is too high for Tyson Jackson and play makers at linebacker will go quickly in this draft. Maybin may not be the best cover linebacker but he’s got skills as a pass rusher.

No. 10 — San Francisco 49ers
T Andre Smith, Alabama (no change)

If Sanchez falls, the dynamic of the 49ers draft changes. If not, the team has a decision to make. Is it a linebacker or is it a guy who can come in and start at right tackle opposite Joe Staley? Smith is an interesting prospect as a left tackle (who wouldn’t be interested in a 332-pound guy protecting a quarterback’s back)? But he may be better suited as a run blocker on the right side.

No. 11 — Buffalo Bills
T Michael Oher, Ole Miss (Previous Pick: Malcom Jenkins)

The Bills now have two picks in the first round and thus have flexibility to move up for a player or get two starters. Trading Jason Peters opens up a hole at left tackle but the team can address it here. I like Oher and he’s got good upside at the position. Buffalo can’t wait for an offensive linemen in the first round, so this is the pick.

No. 12 — Denver Broncos
LB James Laurinaitus, Ohio State (no change)

A lot of things need to go right for the Broncos in this draft. They have the picks to move up and get just about anyone they want, but stockpiling selections helps a team with a lot of needs. The team held a workout for Sanchez, but I’m thinking the experience at quarterback on the roster (Kyle Orton and Chris Simms) makes the decision makers feel better about passing on a signal caller in the first round. Laurinaitus is as solid as they come and 49ers head coach turned Broncos defensive coordinator Mike Nolan knows a thing or two about having good linebackers in his system (see Willis-comma-Patrick).

No. 13 — Washington Redskins
LB Rey Maualuga, USC (Previous Pick: Michael Johnson)

Michael Johnson is falling out of favor again with some draft gurus and, if you’re the Redskins, maybe you think you’re OK with the acquisition of Albert Haynesworth on the defensive line. He’ll free up the linebackers and that’s another area of need in Washington. Maualuga is a tackling machine and can be an anchor on an aging defense.

No. 14 — New Orleans Saints
DB Malcom Jenkins, Ohio State (Previous Pick: Vontae Davis)

I’m not changing my mind on the position, just the player. If Jenkins tumbles the first team that’s looking at cornerback will take him. He still may evolve into a safety in the NFL. Either way, the Saints get an upgrade in the secondary. They’re going to need it long term with Ryan in the division.

No. 15 — Houston Texans
CB Vontae Davis, Illinois (Previous Pick: Darius Butler)

It’s nice to have a big pass rush and the Texans still need someone opposite Mario Williams but in a division that has the high-powered Colts a solid secondary is key. Davis is also athletic enough to mix it up with the Titans power run game. He provides some insurance — and a possible replacement — for Dunta Robinson who has said he’s unhappy about getting the franchise tag.

No. 16 — San Diego Chargers
DE Tyson Jackson, LSU (Previous Pick: Rey Maualuga)

This is where it gets interesting. The Broncos need a defensive end for a 3-4 scheme. So do the Chargers. Jackson fits the mold and Denver and San Diego pick close to each other. Possible fireworks with division rivals? Or, I’m totally wrong on this pick and nothing happens. I’ll figure the odds in my head sometime before Saturday.

No. 17 — New York Jets
QB Josh Freeman, Kansas State (no change)

I don’t want to call any pick a “gimme” but this one just makes too much sense.

No. 18 — Denver Broncos (from Chicago)
DE/LB Larry English, Northern Illinois (Previous Pick: Tyson Jackson)

If you think of English as a linebacker you’ll get confused. With this pick the Broncos get a pass rusher with a little experience in a 3-4 and keep Laurinaitus and D.J. Williams on the inside. Maybe Elvis Dumervil moves to linebacker. A lot of questions, but if that group pans out the Broncos could be in good shape.

No. 19 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers
DT Peria Jerry, Ole Miss (Previous Pick: Brian Cushing)

The next two flips could flip-flop. Lions head coach Jim Schwartz spent years coaching Haynesworth in Tennessee so he knows what a big lineman can do for a defense. Jerry is a high-motor player that can disrupt plays at the line of scrimmage. But we’re talking about the Bucs. They also need an interior pass rush to make the defense click.

No. 20 — Detroit Lions (from Dallas)
LB Brian Cushing, USC (Previous Pick: Michael Oher)

The Lions could also use a linebacker. Compare Cushing to Keith Bulluck. Also, think about a defense with Ernie Sims playing linebacker opposite this USC standout?

No. 21 — Philadelphia Eagles
RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia (no change)

I almost pulled out the surprise pick and sent Moreno to Denver. That would certainly make some Eagles fans upset.

No. 22 — Minnesota Vikings
WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri (no change)

I’ve seen Maclin go higher in the first round but the run on wide receiver is coming in the bottom 10 picks this season. Maclin was an All-American receiver and return man at Missouri. Maybe he stops the search for a star wideout in Minnesota.

No. 23 — New England Patriots
LB Clay Matthews, USC (no change)

A lot of Falcons fans would love to see Matthews on the board at No. 24. It would be a good story. His father played in Atlanta and he went from walk-on to star at USC. He fits in with the Patriots needs, though, and he gets scooped up just before the Falcons go on the clock.

No. 24 — Atlanta Falcons
CB Darius Butler, Connecticut (Previous Pick: Larry English)

He’s consistent. He’s versatile. He’s a pick that makes sense for the Falcons (at least in this humble blogger’s opinion).

Butler had 10 interceptions over his college career. He was a four-year starter at UCONN and a two-time team captain. His skill set translates to zone or man coverages and he even played a little offense.

You may say the team should look at linebacker, but the re-signing of Coy Wire and addition of Mike Peterson gives the Falcons starting experience at the position. Stephen Nicholas has also patiently waited for his chance and he’ll be given a shot to compete once offseason practices begin.

Defensive tackle? Trey Lewis was a rookie starter and, were it not for an injury, could have played a big role as a run stopper last season. He’s healthy and ready to go.

Safety is a spot that remains up in the air. Thomas DeCoud is a second-year player but has all the skills to come in and play next to Erik Coleman. Jamal Fudge, who started a game for an injured Lawyer Milloy last season, remains on the roster. There are going to be good safeties available in the second round, so it’s OK to be patient.

Tight end is at the status quo and there’s value later in the draft should the Falcons look to add a pass catcher.

As for cornerback… Well, I explained a little more in this YouTube video how you can never have too much competition at the position and how Butler could fit in.

Again, this is all hypothetical.

No. 25 — Miami Dolphins
WR Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina (no change)

Tedd Ginn Jr. is a solid wide receiver and the Dolphins expect him to step up this season. But adding another, all-around pass catcher won’t hurt.

No. 26 — Baltimore Ravens
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland (no change)

I think this is the only pick I’ve had for the Ravens since this started. The defense in Baltimore will be fine. Joe Flacco needs a weapon to strike down field.

No. 27 — Indianapolis Colts
DT Evander Hood, Missouri (no change)

Nicks or Heyward-Bey would be the pick if available. The Colts have no problem drafting for an already stocked offense, especially when there’s a need to replace Marvin Harrsion. But getting a defensive tackle may be the most pressing need.

No. 28 Buffalo Bills (from Carolina via Philadelphia)
TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State

Pettigrew would go to the Eagles and I figure he’ll stay in the same spot now that the Bills own the pick. This is about rounding out the offense.

No. 29 — New York Giants
WR Percy Harvin, Florida (no change)

I’m not ruling out the Titans making a run at Harvin but writing in trades to a mock draft is just too confusing. The Giants address a position of need with Harvin and, as an added bonus, get a player that can make some noise on end-arounds and other running plays. I almost put Beanie Wells in this spot but that would be a reach for the Giants who still have a pretty good running game despite free agent departures.

No. 30 — Tennessee Titans
DT Ron Brace, Boston College (no change)

This may be the year the Titans decide to take a wide receiver in the first round. Harvin is the best fit because he can help in the team’s running game. Cornerback is an option but if you’re looking at the team’s defense you have to figure out a way to replace Haynesworth.

No. 31 –Arizona Cardinals
RB Beanie Wells (no change)

The Cardinals have to improve the running game to help Larry Fitzgerald and Kurt Warner. If Wells isn’t a surprise pick by the Broncos or Eagles, he’ll fall into a good situation in Arizona

No. 32 — Pittsburgh Steelers
CB Alphonso Smith, Wake Forest (Previous Pick Eben Britton)

The Steelers lost Bryant McFadden in free agency and have a way of filling spots on the roster before they become too big a need. Smith is an aggressive cornerback that can benefit from the Steelers pass rush.

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